Catching Up to the Market: Financial Television and Retail Trading (Job Market Paper)

Presentations: FMA Annual Meeting (2026 scheduled)

Abstract: This paper examines whether real-time financial television facilitates the diffusion of information to retail investors. Using over a decade of timestamped transcripts from CNBC, Fox Business Network, and Bloomberg TV matched with minute-level trading data, I find that retail order imbalances negatively predict future returns prior to initial TV news coverage but become substantially more informative afterward. The improvement is strongest when institutional trading activity is high, retail and institutional investors disagree, and information remains diffuse rather than formally disclosed or widely disseminated. These patterns suggest that financial television helps information reach retail investors when informational asymmetries are greatest, improving the alignment between retail trading and future fundamentals and narrowing informational gaps between retail and institutional investors.

Quantitative Research on Main Street: Evidence from Seeking Alpha (with Russell Jame and Stanimir Markov)

Presentations: FARS Midyear Meeting (2024), University of Kentucky, North Carolina State*, University of Illinois Chicago*, European Accounting Association Annual Congress* (2026)

Abstract: We study the diffusion and consequences of quantitative research in retail markets using Seeking Alphas 2019 rollout of Quant Ratings, a factor-based stock rating system. Quant Ratings predict returns and are increasingly incorporated into contributor-authored reports. Adoption is strongest among less quantitatively sophisticated contributors and is associated with significant improvements in recommendation informativeness without reducing firm-specific fundamental analysis. Retail order imbalances also become more aligned with Quant Ratings and more predictive of returns, particularly on report publication days. Overall, our findings show that standardized quantitative signals can improve contributor-authored retail research and help retail investors make more informed trading decisions.

How Do Taxes Affect Payout? Evidence from the Excise Tax on Share Repurchases (with Leonce Bargeron, Alice Bonaimé, David Moore, Stefan Obernberger, Yi Zhou)

Presentations: Temple University*, Université Paris Dauphine*, University of Kentucky, 2nd HKU Summer Finance Workshop*, the UC Riverside Citrus Finance Conference*, FMA Annual Meeting (2024)

Abstract: This paper examines how a 1% excise tax on share repurchases introduced in 2023 affects corporate behavior. Using within-firm analysis based on hand-collected monthly data or a synthetic difference-in-differences design with international counterfactuals, we find repurchases decline after the tax. Specifically, U.S. firms cut repurchase 12% more than the non-U.S counterfactual. Firms partially substitute toward dividends, but total payout declines as firms accumulate cash. Firms with repurchases deemed less valuable by investors and firms with a higher marginal value of cash reduce repurchases the most. In contrast, firms with contrarian repurchase strategies are less responsive to the tax. Overall, the tax reshapes payout decisions at the margin by acting as a screening device that selectively discourages repurchases with weaker economic justification, rather than inducing a broad-based contraction.

How Do Repurchases Impact Prices? Information, Demand, or Selection? (with Leonce Bargeron, Alice Bonaimé, Qie Yin)

Bad Repurchasers (with Leonce Bargeron, David Moore)

Lessons learned from 20 years of repurchase disclosure (with Amy Yazhu Li, David Moore, Stefan Obernberger, Jiaqi Zheng, Yi Zhou)

Abstract: We collect and systematically analyze the buyback data filed with the SEC via EDGAR. We provide an overview of the data disclosed in SEC filings and highlight practical challenges when obtaining the data. We provide the most comprehensive and most detailed description of US buyback activity to date. We conclude the analysis by highlighting missing, imprecise, or inconsistent information, which the regulator could try to improve. The data, as well as the codes to obtain the data, are available for other researchers to use.